The global winners and losers of the war in Iran

## Summary
The global winners and losers of the war in Iran 1 hour ago Share Save Dharshini David Deputy economics editor Share Save Sedat Suna / Gett Images Oil producers in the Middle East have faced significant challenges with the Strait of Hormuz blocked due to the conflict From soaring heating oil bills for homes in Yorkshire to bill-saving school closures in Pakistan, the financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt. Winners: Norway, Canada and Russia For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery. Naturally, though, the greatest immediate threat has been to the usual customers of the oil and liquid gas flowing east through the Strait of Hormuz.

## Article Content
The global winners and losers of the war in Iran
1 hour ago
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Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor
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Sedat Suna / Gett Images
Oil producers in the Middle East have faced significant challenges with the Strait of Hormuz blocked due to the conflict
From soaring heating oil bills for homes in Yorkshire to bill-saving school closures in Pakistan, the financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt.
It is increasingly clear that the impact of Tehran's retaliation, designed to trigger economic disruption and damage, may not be fleeting. Moreover, it's very uneven.
Alongside a hefty catalogue of those who risk being hard hit, there are some who are benefiting. So who are they?
Winners: Norway, Canada and Russia
For all the efforts to pursue renewable energy, we remain hugely reliant on oil and gas. Plentiful reserves tend to promise great riches, hence crude has been labelled "black gold". When prices rise, producers are typically quids in, while users are out of pocket.
But this is not your usual oil price shock.
The Middle East remains the heart of supply, the Strait of Hormuz its main artery.
The impact of a de facto blockage and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard, as Tehran targets America's allies.
As customers seek alternative sources, it's the likes of
Norway and Canada
who may gain.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and when many countries sought to move away from relying on Russian gas, Norway was able to ramp up production and take advantage.
Meanwhile, Canada's Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has been quick to position his nation as "a stable, reliable, predictable, values-based producer of energy", but there are questions about how much it can raise production.
Getty Images
Tim Hodgson has made it clear that Canada is open for business, but there are questions about its capacity to raise production
Instead, it's
Russia that could be the biggest winner
. As Washington
relaxes the rules to ease the global supply crunch
, Russia's crude oil sales to India have jumped by 50%.
Some estimates say that Moscow could earn up to $5bn (£3.7bn) more by the end of March, and could be on track for its biggest year of fuel-related revenues since 2022.
America risks handing Moscow a hefty windfall at the expense of Gulf nations. There are other potential gainers too.
As some countries ramp up their use of coal, it is a tantalising opportunity for big exporters such as
Indonesia,
as the price of that fuel also rises.
Why has Trump eased sanctions on Russian oil - and will it help Putin?
Losers: US, UK and Europe
What of the US itself?
President Donald Trump says that when oil goes up, the US "makes a lot of money".
Certainly, American oil producers could be on track to make tens of billions of dollars of extra revenues this year if crude prices remain around current levels.
But that doesn't make the US a net winner.
Firstly, because some producers are heavily exposed to disruption in the Middle East. ExxonMobil, for instance, has operations at
Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial hub
, where production has been shut down since early March, and which has now been hit by Iranian missile attacks, causing "extensive damage".
Secondly, after years of cutting back capacity in the face of dwindling wholesale prices, many shale producers can't ramp up output quickly.
And most important of all: on a per person basis, Americans are the biggest users of oil and gas on the planet.
From cranking up the heat in the harsh Midwest winters, to fuelling the driving season, they are heavily exposed to the fluctuating price of fossil fuels.
Economists at Oxford Economics warn that if oil prices were to surge to $140 - and stay there - the economy risks shrinking.
Bloomberg via Getty Images
Americans are heavily exposed to fluctuations in the price of fossil fuels
Of course, Americans are not alone in that vulnerability. The
reliance of European consumers
- and those in the UK - to imported gas in particular means a greater risk to growth.
And that would happen via the hit to inflation: market developments over the last few weeks could add roughly 0.5% to inflation later in the year, if sustained, as price increases filter across to items such as fertiliser and shipping costs.
The good news is that, in becoming more energy efficient over the years, the West in general is more resilient to energy price shocks than in the past.
But with, for example, oil and gas making up more than half of energy consumption
in the UK
, drivers, household heating bills and those for energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing remain exposed – which is true in many nations across the world.
Much of the impact depends not just on the future direction of prices, but government responses, which is a heated topic.
It is unsurprising that many authorities are hesitant to think about large-scale bailouts, for their finances too are under fire.
The re

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- The global winners and losers of the war in Iran 1 hour ago Share Save Dharshini David Deputy economics editor Share Save Sedat Suna / Gett Images Oil producers in the Middle East have faced significant challenges with the Strait of Hormuz blocked due to the conflict From soaring heating oil bills for homes in Yorkshire to bill-saving school closures in Pakistan, the financial fallout from the war in the Middle East is already being keenly felt.
- After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and when many countries sought to move away from relying on Russian gas, Norway was able to ramp up production and take advantage.
- And most important of all: on a per person basis, Americans are the biggest users of oil and gas on the planet.
- The same is true of India , as it also takes advantage of that temporary green light to turn to Russia.

### Areas for Consideration
- Alongside a hefty catalogue of those who risk being hard hit, there are some who are benefiting.
- The reliance of European consumers - and those in the UK - to imported gas in particular means a greater risk to growth.
- The response of bond markets to the risk of higher inflation threatens to add billions to the costs of already-indebted countries.

### Implications
- It is increasingly clear that the impact of Tehran's retaliation, designed to trigger economic disruption and damage, may not be fleeting.
- The impact of a de facto blockage and attacks on energy infrastructure in the region has hit Gulf producers like Qatar and Saudi Arabia hard, as Tehran targets America's allies.
- As customers seek alternative sources, it's the likes of Norway and Canada who may gain.
- Getty Images Tim Hodgson has made it clear that Canada is open for business, but there are questions about its capacity to raise production Instead, it's Russia that could be the biggest winner .

### Expert Commentary
This article covers oil, energy, east topics. Notable strengths include discussion of oil. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1130.