Prepare for turbulence - how a prolonged Middle East conflict could reshape how we fly

## Summary
AFP via Getty Images At Gulf hubs like Dubai International Airport, schedules remain limited Since then, the situation has stabilised somewhat, with all three major carriers operating regular flights from their hubs. That was the secret sauce," explains Mr Hogan. "You were able to create a service proposition that couldn't be matched by carriers in more traditional markets, whether that be the USA, Europe or Australasia." Anadolu via Getty Images The Middle East conflict has thrown the hubs' business model into disarray As a result, the Gulf carriers and the hubs they serve have grown rapidly since the start of the millennium, becoming a key junction for long-distance aviation. "It is the pivot point for passengers that arrive from Europe and North America… who are scheduled to connect onwards on another flight to Australia, South East Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong or the Indian subcontinent," explains John Grant, senior analyst at OAG. "It is a hugely efficient, very effective operation that sees 90-100 flights arriving in a one-hour time window and then departing somewhere else an hour or two later." All of this has also had a significant impact on the cost of long-haul aviation. "Competition drove down prices, and the Gulf carriers were a competitive game changer," says Mr Charlton. "They added capacity to long-haul markets, they created long-haul markets… so of course they drove airfares down." But the conflict in the Middle East has thrown all this into disarray, according to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at the Baker Institute in Texas. Take Gulf carriers out of the equation, air fares are going to go up, as sure as eggs are eggs." European airlines have already responded to the crisis in the Middle East by changing their own schedules, and adding flights that avoid the need for a stopover in the Gulf. Some people in the early days may be apprehensive, but travellers will come back. "I'm very bullish about what the Gulf has to offer." There's no question that, in the short term at least, the conflict in the Middle East has come as a severe blow to the major Gulf carriers and the hubs they rely on.

## Article Content
Prepare for turbulence - how a prolonged Middle East conflict could reshape how we fly
2 hours ago
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Theo Leggett
Transport correspondent
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BBC
It was once a humble outpost in the world of global aviation, a dusty overnight halt for luxury flying boats making the arduous journey from the UK to far-flung parts of the British Empire, such as India and Australia. By the 1960s, it had a simple runway made of desert sand, used as a refuelling stop by airliners en route to arguably more exotic destinations.
Yet today, Dubai is one of the key pillars of the industry, and Dubai International Airport (DXB) is its beating heart. In 2024, more than 92 million passengers made their way through its gleaming, marble-floored halls and sparkling, brightly lit shopping malls.
That makes DXB the busiest airport in the world for international passengers - far outstripping London Heathrow, for example, which accommodated just under 83 million. Nor is Dubai alone within the Gulf as a major hub. Rival airports in Abu Dhabi and the Qatari capital, Doha, are not quite as busy, but they still handled some 87 million passengers between them.
Under normal circumstances, these three Gulf airports together handle more than 3,000 flights every day, the majority of them operated by the local carriers, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.
But the conflict in the Middle East has had a dramatic impact on global aviation. First, there was the paralysis of flights through some of the busiest airspace in the world, leaving aircraft at major hub airports grounded and hundreds of thousands of passengers stranded. Air traffic in the region remains heavily disrupted.
Then there is fuel. With supplies from refineries in the Gulf choked off after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it has become a serious concern. The region normally accounts for about half of Europe's jet fuel imports, and fears of scarcity have caused prices to double since the start of the conflict. Some carriers have already begun cutting flights in response.
But while these issues are likely to dominate the industry's thinking in the short-term - and will probably lead to higher prices in the months to come - there's also a question mark over what the longer-term implications will be.
In particular, insiders are asking what it all means for the hugely successful "Gulf model" of aviation - which has been widely credited with transforming long-distance travel and making it cheaper. And that has serious implications for airlines, passengers and businesses in the Middle East that rely on the region's abundant airline connections.
Chaos in the departure halls
The Gulf hubs, normally well-oiled machines, shuddered to a halt following the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. With airspace closed across the region, aircraft were grounded. Some planes that had already taken off were forced to turn back.
Tens of thousands of passengers were left stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, many of them people who had only arrived in the region to change planes. Meanwhile, both the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were being targeted by retaliatory drone and missile strikes from Iran, creating a tense and fearful environment for those who were trapped in airports and hotels.
Many more passengers around the world were unable to travel on the services they had booked, because their flights were due to go via one of the Gulf hubs. They were left scrambling to find alternatives.
Emirates and Etihad did begin operating a limited service to get people home within days, and Qatar Airways followed suit shortly afterwards. Other carriers from outside the region also put on flights. Some governments, including the UK's, chartered their own aircraft to help people leave the region.
AFP via Getty Images
At Gulf hubs like Dubai International Airport, schedules remain limited
Since then, the situation has stabilised somewhat, with all three major carriers operating regular flights from their hubs. But schedules remain limited and prone to disruption. According to analysts at Cirium, more than 30,000 services to the Middle East as a whole have been cancelled since the start of the conflict.
Much of this took place in a harsh glare of publicity, as travellers took to social media or spoke to news networks about their experiences and frustrations.
Among them was Ian Scott, who had been flying from Melbourne to Venice via Doha. His outward flight from the Qatari capital was forced to turn back in mid-air, and he subsequently had to spend several days sheltering in a hotel, before choosing to spend two days driving through the desert to Oman. From there, he was eventually able to get a flight out.
He now says that in future, he would avoid flying via the Gulf hubs, even once hostilities have ceased – because he has "no faith" the region's troubles would end there.
How the Gulf hubs became such a success
And it's the verdicts of travellers like Ian that will be most worryin

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- How the Gulf hubs became such a success And it's the verdicts of travellers like Ian that will be most worrying for the hubs' operators.
- He ran the carrier for 11 years - from 2006-2017 - overseeing a period of rapid expansion for the company, which began operations in 2003. "The Gulf carriers were able to build a very strong network, not only of hub cities, capital cities – but also the major secondary cities and third cities, which enabled one-stop flying," he says.
- And so, in the early years of the century, that put the region's airlines in an ideal position to take advantage of rapid growth in markets such as China and India, which he believes European and American carriers initially overlooked. "The Middle East was suddenly in exactly the right place for the emerging market, which was well east of the Atlantic," he says.
- That was the secret sauce," explains Mr Hogan. "You were able to create a service proposition that couldn't be matched by carriers in more traditional markets, whether that be the USA, Europe or Australasia." Anadolu via Getty Images The Middle East conflict has thrown the hubs' business model into disarray As a result, the Gulf carriers and the hubs they serve have grown rapidly since the start of the millennium, becoming a key junction for long-distance aviation. "It is the pivot point for passengers that arrive from Europe and North America… who are scheduled to connect onwards on another flight to Australia, South East Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong or the Indian subcontinent," explains John Grant, senior analyst at OAG. "It is a hugely efficient, very effective operation that sees 90-100 flights arriving in a one-hour time window and then departing somewhere else an hour or two later." All of this has also had a significant impact on the cost of long-haul aviation. "Competition drove down prices, and the Gulf carriers were a competitive game changer," says Mr Charlton. "They added capacity to long-haul markets, they created long-haul markets… so of course they drove airfares down." But the conflict in the Middle East has thrown all this into disarray, according to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at the Baker Institute in Texas.

### Areas for Consideration
- With supplies from refineries in the Gulf choked off after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it has become a serious concern.
- That prosperity, however, could potentially be put at risk if air traffic to the region fails to recover quickly, with the tourism sector looking particularly exposed.
- BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of th

### Implications
- Prepare for turbulence - how a prolonged Middle East conflict could reshape how we fly 2 hours ago Share Save Theo Leggett Transport correspondent Share Save BBC It was once a humble outpost in the world of global aviation, a dusty overnight halt for luxury flying boats making the arduous journey from the UK to far-flung parts of the British Empire, such as India and Australia.
- But the conflict in the Middle East has had a dramatic impact on global aviation.
- But while these issues are likely to dominate the industry's thinking in the short-term - and will probably lead to higher prices in the months to come - there's also a question mark over what the longer-term implications will be.
- Tens of thousands of passengers were left stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar, many of them people who had only arrived in the region to change planes.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers gulf, carriers, aviation topics. Notable strengths include discussion of gulf. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 2504.