How the Iran war has left Europe facing yet another energy crisis

## Summary
How the Iran war has left Europe facing yet another energy crisis 15 minutes ago Share Save Katya Adler Europe Editor Share Save BBC The knock-on effects of the conflict now whipping through the Middle East are awakening ghosts of crises past that shook the European Union. Seven months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, the President of the European Commission stood at her podium in the European Parliament and accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market. "They prefer to flare the gas than to deliver it," proclaimed Ursula von der Leyen, as spiralling energy prices hit consumers across the continent. "This market is not functioning anymore." "This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values and a war on our future," she declared, insisting that Europe was already pivoting away from Russian gas and toward more dependable partners such as the US and Norway. Hard-hit European countries A lot has changed since 2022, when Europe decided to phase out its reliance on Russian gas, oil and coal and become more energy independent, following Moscow's widespread assault on Ukraine. Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, said last week: "With the outbreak of the crisis in the Middle East, the issue of energy prices has clearly become even more important, which is why, at European level, we are also calling for the urgent suspension of the application of the ETS to electricity production." One proposal by the European Commission, which admits the ETS system needs a revamp, would be to use revenues earned from the ETS to help industries in EU member states struggling with rising costs. "We are in a complex world of trade-offs," says Georg Zachmann, a specialist in EU energy and climate policies from the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank. "If Europe wants to get invested in nuclear or renewable energies with the aim of being more self-reliant and energy secure, that will take time." He describes it as "madness" that sunshine drenched southern Italy doesn't put up more solar panels, for example. "You need a long-term plan but also a realistic one.

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How the Iran war has left Europe facing yet another energy crisis
15 minutes ago
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Katya Adler
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The knock-on effects of the conflict now whipping through the Middle East are awakening ghosts of crises past that shook the European Union.
Seven months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, the President of the European Commission stood at her podium in the European Parliament and accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market.
"They prefer to flare the gas than to deliver it," proclaimed Ursula von der Leyen, as spiralling energy prices hit consumers across the continent. "This market is not functioning anymore."
"This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values and a war on our future," she declared, insisting that Europe was already pivoting away from Russian gas and toward more dependable partners such as the US and Norway.
But fast forward four years and you find deep energy-linked frustration in the heart of Europe once again.
"We swore we'd learn. We promised things would change but here we are," a highly frustrated European diplomat told me. He asked for anonymity so as to be able to speak openly.
The focus of his teeth grinding was Europe's growing energy shock, triggered by the burning conflict in the Middle East and threatening to dominate a summit of European leaders in Brussels on Thursday.
"Instead of concentrating on much-needed long-term plans - about how to make Europe more competitive in this increasingly volatile world, [European] prime ministers and presidents are now in a panic over [energy] prices, worried about angry voters and scrambling for short-term solutions.
EPA/Shutterstock
In 2022, Ursula von der Leyen accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market
"Just like the crisis after Russia's fullscale invasion of Ukraine. Different conflict. Same European divisions; same dilemmas over energy. We can't keep going round in these circles. Something's got to give."
You'd be hard-pushed to find a policy-maker in Europe who didn't agree with that last statement.
But can Europe - whether that be the whole continent or even just the 27 member states of the EU, with their diverse range of industries, energy requirements and perspectives on renewables - really secure its own energy?
Hard-hit European countries
A lot has changed since 2022, when Europe decided to phase out its reliance on Russian gas, oil and coal and become more energy independent, following Moscow's widespread assault on Ukraine.
Considering the EU's slow-moving reputation, the bloc moved swiftly once it decided to cut ties with Russian energy suppliers. Now only 2% of its oil imports come from Russia, flowing to Moscow-friendly Hungary and Slovakia alone. The EU plans an end to all Russian gas imports - including LNG by next year.
Quite a turnaround from before Russia's invasion of Ukraine when Russia supplied an estimated 55% of German natural gas imports for example, fuelling its energy-hungry industries, especially chemicals and car manufacturing.
Getty Images
Europe is facing a growing energy shock, triggered by the conflict in the Middle East
As energy prices skyrocketed in 2022 in reaction to Russia's invasion and the energy standoff between Russia and Europe, many countries, like Italy and the UK, felt forced to help consumers and businesses pay their bills. Coming so soon after the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, already cash-strapped governments really felt the squeeze.
"Diversification" became the buzzword in Brussels corridors. The EU decided it would never again allow itself to be so dependent on a single energy supplier.
But four years later, the dependency is still there, even though there is more than one supplier. Europe now heavily relies on Norway and the US for its energy. Simply taking Russia out of the equation hasn't solved the continent's issue with energy security.
The US's key role
President Donald Trump's US has become one lynchpin in Europe's energy provisions, replacing Russia.
Europe made a rapid shift from Russian pipeline gas to liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2022. This continent is now the world's largest LNG importer and the biggest single LNG supplier (to a tune of 57% of total LNG imports to the EU) is the US.
Energy-hungry Germany gets as much as 96% of its LNG from the US now. This dependence might explain why the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remained silent when he sat next to Trump in the White House two weeks ago, as the US president berated and threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain, because it had not allowed him to use military bases on its territory to launch attacks on Iran.
Perhaps the spluttering German economy and its current thirst for US energy were on Merz's mind. Perhaps he did not want to risk the wrath of the American president, with his reputation for vengefulness. But it wasn't a good look for European unity that day.
Since returning to the White H

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping routes, and its most vital oil transit choke point.
- He says Europe will still manage to secure energy supplies in the current crisis, despite the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, because the wealthy continent can out-pay other regions in a crisis.
- There is deep concern among a number of leaders that spiralling energy and possible inflationary rises, (coupled with possible refugee influxes to Europe on the back of the growing Middle East crisis) will alienate voters and play into the hands of populist nationalist politicians on the right and left of the European political spectrum. "It is crucial that we reduce the cost impact [from the Iran war]," Ursula von der Leyen said this week in the run-up to the summit. "We must deliver relief now… [We need] a comprehensive look at how to reduce people's energy bills." EU leaders are considering reviewing taxes, introducing price caps for consumers and other measures as a quick fix for struggling industries.
- Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, said last week: "With the outbreak of the crisis in the Middle East, the issue of energy prices has clearly become even more important, which is why, at European level, we are also calling for the urgent suspension of the application of the ETS to electricity production." One proposal by the European Commission, which admits the ETS system needs a revamp, would be to use revenues earned from the ETS to help industries in EU member states struggling with rising costs. "We are in a complex world of trade-offs," says Georg Zachmann, a specialist in EU energy and climate policies from the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank. "If Europe wants to get invested in nuclear or renewable energies with the aim of being more self-reliant and energy secure, that will take time." He describes it as "madness" that sunshine drenched southern Italy doesn't put up more solar panels, for example. "You need a long-term plan but also a realistic one.

### Areas for Consideration
- Simply taking Russia out of the equation hasn't solved the continent's issue with energy security.
- Perhaps he did not want to risk the wrath of the American president, with his reputation for vengefulness.
- In exchange, Trump "reduced" his 30% tariff threat to 15% on most EU exports to the US.

### Implications
- Seven months into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, the President of the European Commission stood at her podium in the European Parliament and accused Russia of manipulating the EU's energy market. "They prefer to flare the gas than to deliver it," proclaimed Ursula von der Leyen, as spiralling energy prices hit consumers across the continent. "This market is not functioning anymore." "This is a war on our energy, a war on our economy, a war on our values and a war on our future," she declared, insisting that Europe was already pivoting away from Russian gas and toward more dependable partners such as the US and Norway.
- We promised things would change but here we are," a highly frustrated European diplomat told me.
- Something's got to give." You'd be hard-pushed to find a policy-maker in Europe who didn't agree with that last statement.
- This dependence might explain why the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remained silent when he sat next to Trump in the White House two weeks ago, as the US president berated and threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain, because it had not allowed him to use military bases on its territory to launch attacks on Iran.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers energy, europe, european topics. Notable strengths include discussion of energy. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 2493.