Farmers warn of food price spike as war drives up fuel and fertilizer costs

## Summary
We hear from farmers about the impact on their crops and Geoff Bennett discusses the potential shortage with Caitlin Welsh. Russell Boening: There's people saying, well, there's 80 percent of the fertilizer has already been purchased for this year's crop. Geoff Bennett: For more on the impact of this fertilizer shortage, return now to Caitlin Welsh. In this case, again, it will take some time to see the impacts of high fertilizer prices on agriculture markets and food prices, but in the near term, it's high energy prices that are driving food prices higher globally.

## Article Content
About a third of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of elevated food prices and lower crop yields. We hear from farmers about the impact on their crops and Geoff Bennett discusses the potential shortage with Caitlin Welsh.

Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors.

Geoff Bennett:

Let's focus now on some of the economic effects of the war with Iran.

About a third of the world's fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of both elevated food prices and lower crop yields across the globe.

This morning, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told PBS News' Liz Landers that -- quote -- "everything was on the table" to fix the problem for American farmers.

Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary:

Clearly, this -- I think we're at 36 days for the conflict -- has elevated the issue of fertilizer and how important it is for American farmers and, frankly, for our food supply.

The good news is that about 80 percent of our farmers actually last fall locked in their fertilizer, so, as we're moving into planting season, it's only about 20 to 25 percent of our farmers that didn't lock that in. We are working directly to ensure that we can get them what they need and it won't bankrupt them.

Geoff Bennett:

Now, despite those numbers, farmers we spoke with say they fear these cost increases could put them over the edge.

Here's some of what they told us.

Russell Boening, Texas Farmer:

My name is Russell Boening. My family and I farm right south of San Antonio. We're buying nitrogen right now. And it's about 40 percent higher than it was two or three months ago, before the conflict. Let's just say that.

Lance Lillibridge, Iowa Farmer:

I'm Lance Lillibridge from Benton County, Iowa.

We booked most of our fertilizer before the conflict in Iran. However, some of it we did not because it was too expensive. We're probably going to go without that particular nutrient on our crop this year. A lot of other farmers are doing the same thing.

Matt Frostic, Michigan Farmer:

My name is Matt Frostic. I have a crop and livestock operation in Michigan. In January, we were looking at nitrogen for about $350 a ton. Today, that number is bouncing around $600.

Steve Turner, Illinois Farmer:

Steve Turner. I am a farmer in northwest Illinois located about 40 miles northwest of Springfield.

We have got a lot of our inputs paid for, but I'm afraid we're going to be looking at some elevated prices for a while.

Russell Boening:

There's people saying, well, there's 80 percent of the fertilizer has already been purchased for this year's crop. And we actually heard that figure from USDA. Even if 80 percent is pre-purchased and the other 20 percent goes up 50 percent or more, it can still be a pretty good hit for you.

Matt Frostic:

The reality is, we're not breaking even. We didn't break even the last two years.

Lance Lillibridge:

With increases in input prices, there are no margins. They appear to be zero at this point.

Steve Turner:

It's just not the fertilizer. It's going to be the fuel end of this thing. And I know everybody's experiencing that right now with the elevated fuel prices.

Russell Boening:

You know, I always say, if gas and diesel go up, if oil goes up, everything else is going to follow in some form or fashion.

Matt Frostic:

As fuel becomes expensive and it's hard to produce that crop or costs more to produce and transport that crop, it all kind of equates to higher prices.

Lance Lillibridge:

So much of growing a crop is out of our control, and we can only manage certain things. When the prices of these inputs become so high, it's -- gosh, what do we do? I don't know. And I don't think anybody's got a wonderful answer to it.

Russell Boening:

Well, when it comes to policy, I mean, frustration might be a little bit of a strong word. There's maybe anxiety even before the conflict. Let's be honest about it. Tariffs have caused the price of our inputs to increase. If you want to look at it from the 30,000-foot view, agriculture pretty much still trusts this administration. That's still what I hear.

Steve Turner:

When you look at the Strait of Hormuz, we have got to have shipments out of there. And I think anything, whether it's our U.S. Navy or whatever it is to stabilize that region to get shipments out of there, because we were already fighting record inflation and a price squeeze already. And this is just more on it right there.

Geoff Bennett:

For more on the impact of this fertilizer shortage, return now to Caitlin Welsh. She's the director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategi

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- About a third of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season.
- About a third of the world's fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season.
- Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary: Clearly, this -- I think we're at 36 days for the conflict -- has elevated the issue of fertilizer and how important it is for American farmers and, frankly, for our food supply.
- Russell Boening: Well, when it comes to policy, I mean, frustration might be a little bit of a strong word.

### Areas for Consideration
- This morning, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told PBS News' Liz Landers that -- quote -- "everything was on the table" to fix the problem for American farmers.
- Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary: Clearly, this -- I think we're at 36 days for the conflict -- has elevated the issue of fertilizer and how important it is for American farmers and, frankly, for our food supply.

### Implications
- We hear from farmers about the impact on their crops and Geoff Bennett discusses the potential shortage with Caitlin Welsh.
- They may contain errors.
- Geoff Bennett: Now, despite those numbers, farmers we spoke with say they fear these cost increases could put them over the edge.
- Russell Boening: Well, when it comes to policy, I mean, frustration might be a little bit of a strong word.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers fertilizer, prices, food topics. Notable strengths include discussion of fertilizer. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 1772.