After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?

## Summary
The Hungarian prime minister was speaking at a mass election rally in Györ in western Hungary on 27 March, referring to opposition protesters who chanted "Filthy Fidesz" during his speech. Most opinion polls put the opposition Tisza party and its leader Peter Magyar far ahead of Orban's Fidesz - the latest by 58% to Orban's 35%. But Fidesz claims the sense that it's in trouble has been cooked up by the opposition. "All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst from the government think tank Szazadveg. "When the opposition lose the election, this gives them an excuse to allege 'fraud'." Political analyst Gabor Török - one of the few analysts in this extremely polarised society respected by both sides - wrote recently on his blog: "This is not the 'calm strength' or the 'strategic calm,' image, nor the one carefully cultivated for years and displayed on 'Prime Minister of Hungary' posters. "If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side." Global referendum The shockwaves of an Orban defeat would reverberate far beyond Hungary's borders. "Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy in the world," argues Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was forced out of the Hungarian capital in 2019. "This is not just an election. AFP via Getty Images Orban transformed Hungary into an international destination for the political right A victory for Fidesz in this election would add momentum to the chances of far-right parties in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and Portugal.

## Article Content
After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?
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Nick Thorpe
Budapest correspondent
BBC
"All they stand for is anger, hatred, and destruction," roared a hoarse Viktor Orban. The Hungarian prime minister was speaking at a mass election rally in Györ in western Hungary on 27 March, referring to opposition protesters who chanted "Filthy Fidesz" during his speech. For just a moment, his carefully cultivated image as the voice of calm navigating his country through stormy seas was shattered. His bad-tempered outburst showed a different side of a man used to cracking jokes and charming even his critics.
Most opinion polls put the opposition Tisza party
and its leader Peter Magyar
far ahead of Orban's Fidesz - the latest by 58% to Orban's 35%. And he is doing everything he can to close the gap. After 16 years of virtually unchallenged rule, Orban has been forced to take to the road again. In the past three elections, he gave few rallies. Now Europe's longest-serving leader is trying to mobilise his supporters and reach the undecided. He has just a week left to rescue his government, and the international populist movement he embodies, from a crushing defeat.
In power since 2010, Orban has had the support of both US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has long been a thorn in the side of the EU - and one of the few EU leaders not supportive on Ukraine. For Europe's growing band of nationalist parties, in power or on the brink of it, he is the model. The 12 April Hungarian parliamentary election is being watched closely all over the world.
NurPhoto via Getty Images
Orban has a rough, rural style
"We can notice a big change in public perception," said Endre Hann of the Median agency, a public-opinion research firm. In January, 44% of those asked said they thought Fidesz would win, compared with 37% for Tisza. By March, 47% believed Tisza would win, while 35% believed Fidesz would. "This reflects a huge change of trust. People believe that it can be changed," he says.
An intriguing dynamic is playing out in this election - the same voter anger against those seen as "corrupt ruling elites" across Europe, is now working against him. In Hungary, it is now Orban and his Fidesz party who are seen by many, especially the young, as the "corrupt ruling elite".
Getty Images
Trump has lent Orban his support over the years
The Orban government has been repeatedly accused of draining state coffers and giving state tenders for projects to companies owned by close associates. The government explains this concentration of wealth as an attempt to put wealth in national, instead of foreign hands.
The projects included bridges, football stadiums and motorways. His son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, owns a string of prominent hotels. His childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, a former gas fitter, has become the wealthiest man in the country. Orban refuses to answer questions about the personal wealth of his friends and family. All deny wrongdoing.
Can Orban save himself by blaming Ukraine - and its EU backers - for his country's woes? And can the smooth-talking lawyer who hopes to unseat him convince Hungarians, particularly those in rural areas which make up the Fidesz heartlands, that he can deliver the "more humane, better functioning country" that he promises?
Under pressure
Each day brings a new indication that Orban is in trouble, from alleged voter-intimidation schemes to a dramatic Russian proposal to stage a fake assassination attempt on Orban.
But Fidesz claims the sense that it's in trouble has been cooked up by the opposition. "All these scandals are just the usual suspects trying to build a narrative," says Zoltan Kiszelly, a political analyst from the government think tank Szazadveg. "When the opposition lose the election, this gives them an excuse to allege 'fraud'."
Political analyst Gabor Török - one of the few analysts in this extremely polarised society respected by both sides - wrote recently on his blog: "This is not the 'calm strength' or the 'strategic calm,' image, nor the one carefully cultivated for years and displayed on 'Prime Minister of Hungary' posters.
"If the remaining two weeks unfold like this, it does not bode well for the government side."
Global referendum
The shockwaves of an Orban defeat would reverberate far beyond Hungary's borders.
"Budapest is the headquarters of illiberal democracy in the world," argues Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was forced out of the Hungarian capital in 2019. "This is not just an election. This is a referendum on that whole model of authoritarian rule that Orban represents."
AFP via Getty Images
Orban is backed by other right-wing politicians in Europe
He's referring to the network of think tanks, fellowships, and gatherings of right-wing influencers who zig-zag across the Atlantic to support one another. On consecutive days last month, the American C

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## Expert Analysis

### Merits
- Around 4.5 million of the 8.2 million-strong Hungarian electorate live in small towns and villages - the Fidesz heartlands.
- Since 2002, Fidesz has built a strong system of local patronage in the villages - the mayor decides who receives work, and who gets firewood in winter.
- A slight figure in neat shirts and jackets, Magyar seemed too slick and urbane to reach the hearts of the rural electorate, but has proven himself a strong challenger.
- More from InDepth Jeremy Bowen: Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn't working Prepare for turbulence - how a prolonged Middle East conflict could reshape how we fly How Russia's threat has seen Germany become Europe's most important army A poll published by the 21 Research Agency, a pro-democracy think tank, earlier this week showed the Tisza candidate pulling ahead in most of its 20 swing districts.

### Areas for Consideration
- And he is doing everything he can to close the gap.
- The "peace or war" message, argues Zoltan Kiszelly, the Fidesz analyst, is more sophisticated than it sounds. "The government aims to connect the current situation, the threat of no oil, with practical issues like the cap on utility bills," he explains.
- He quickly abandoned his notes after being criticised for sounding stilted, and started speaking "from the heart", he told me in an interview earlier this year. "After the first days, I read the criticism and learnt… to go closer to the people, to let them ask questions and reply openly and honestly, which is rare in Hungarian politics." He has gone from a rank outsider to the man who is widely expected to unseat Orban.

### Implications
- NurPhoto via Getty Images Orban has a rough, rural style "We can notice a big change in public perception," said Endre Hann of the Median agency, a public-opinion research firm.
- By March, 47% believed Tisza would win, while 35% believed Fidesz would. "This reflects a huge change of trust.
- According to Zoltan Kiszelly, the crucial factor will be whether Fidesz can persuade their supporters to get out on polling day. "We are very optimistic.
- The question is, will they cast their vote?" To make sure they do, Fidesz has worked hard to update its database of supporters.

### Expert Commentary
This article covers fidesz, orban, magyar topics. Notable strengths include discussion of fidesz. Areas of concern are also raised. Readability: Flesch-Kincaid grade 0.0. Word count: 2486.