Transformer-Based Predictive Maintenance for Risk-Aware Instrument Calibration

arXiv:2603.20297v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate calibration is essential for instruments whose measurements must remain traceable, reliable, and compliant over long operating periods. Fixed-interval programs are easy to administer, but they ignore that instruments drift at different rates under different conditions. This paper studies calibration scheduling as a predictive maintenance problem: given recent sensor histories, estimate time-to-drift (TTD) and intervene before a violation occurs. We adapt the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark into a calibration setting by selecting drift-sensitive sensors, defining virtual calibration thresholds, and inserting synthetic reset events that emulate repeated recalibration. We then compare classical regressors, recurrent and convolutional sequence models, and a compact Transformer for TTD prediction. The Transformer provides the strongest point forecasts on the primary FD001 split and remains competitive on the harder FD002--FD004 splits, while a quantile-based uncertainty model supports conservative scheduling when drift behavior is noisier. Under a violation-aware cost model, predictive scheduling lowers cost relative to reactive and fixed policies, and uncertainty-aware triggers sharply reduce violations when point forecasts are less reliable. The results show that condition-based calibration can be framed as a joint forecasting and decision problem, and that combining sequence models with risk-aware policies is a practical route toward smarter calibration planning.